THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume X, Issue # 278, October 27, 2008
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
ALASKA'S GLACIERS ARE GROWING
By Dennis T. Avery
ALASKA'S EXPANDING GLACIERS, THE GLOBAL MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE, & THE EARTH'S RECENT COOLING:
EVIDENCE INDICATING THAT THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL WARMING PERIOD HAS COME TO AN END & THE EARTH HAS
ENTERED A COOLING CYCLE -- EVIDENCE KNOCKING THE PROPS OUT FROM UNDER THE CATASTROPHIC GLOBAL WARMING
PROPAGANDA DISSEMINATED BY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS OPPOSING FOSSIL FUELS AS SOURCES OF ENERGY &
ALL ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT
FULL STORY:
Alaska’s glaciers grew this year, after shrinking for most of the last 200 years. The reason? Global temperatures dropped
over the past 18 months. The global mean annual temperature has been declining recently because the solar wind thrown out
by the sun has retreated to its smallest extent in at least 50 years. This temperature downturn was not predicted by the global
computer models, but had been predicted by the sunspot index since 2000.
The solar wind normally protects the earth from 90 percent of the high-energy cosmic rays that flash constantly through the
universe. Henrik Svensmark at the Danish Space Research Institute has demonstrated that when more cosmic rays hit the
earth, they create more of the low, wet clouds that deflect heat back into outer space. Thus, the earth’s recent cooling.
Unusually large amounts of Alaskan snow last Winter were followed by unusually chilly temperatures there this Summer. “In
general, the weather this Summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years,” says Bruce Molnia of the U.S. Geological
Survey, and author of The Glaciers of Alaska. “It’s been a long time on most glaciers where they’ve actually had
positive mass balance (added thickness).”
Overall, Molnia figures Alaska had lost 10,000 to 12,000 square kilometers of ice since 1800, the depth of the Little Ice Age.
That’s enough ice to cover the State of Connecticut. Climate alarmists claim all the glaciers might disappear soon, but they
haven’t looked at the longterm evidence of the 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles. During the Little Ice Age —
1400 to 1850 — Muir Glacier filled the whole of Glacier Bay. Since then, the glacier has retreated 57 miles. But the Little Ice
Age was preceded by the Medieval Warming, the cold Dark Ages, a Roman Warming, and a whole series of moderate
warmings and coolings that extend back at least 1 million years, based on the evidence of the microfossils in the world’s
seabed sediments.
The real question is whether today’s warming is different than the previous Dansgaard-Osechger warming cycles. I think
that the difference, if any, is slight. Most of our Modern Warming occurred before 1940 and virtually all of our
human-emitted CO2 came after that date. The temperatures in 1998 — the recent peak — were only 0.2 degree Celsius
higher than in 1940. After the temperature drop of the past 18 months, the temperatures are now cooler than in 1940.
The 1,500-year cycles usually start with a sudden shift of 1 to 2 degrees — in temperate zones — and double that in Alaska.
Then temperatures erratically rise and fall with the sun’s total irradiance changes, often in 11-year cycles. At the end of the
warming, comes another Little Ice Age; or, every 100,000 years, a Big Ice Age that will drop temperatures about 15 degrees
Celsius. That’s when insulation will truly become the most important invention in history.
The sunspots are now predicting a 30-year cooling of the earth. That would thicken the Alaskan glaciers somewhat, but
probably wouldn’t refill Glacier Bay with ice. That’ll have to wait for the next Little Ice Age.
The sunspot index has a 59 percent correlation with our temperatures (with a roughly ten-year lag). Carbon dioxide has only
an “accidental” 22 percent correlation with our temperatures, which should be grounds for dismissing CO2 as a major climate
player.
All this is radically different from the 5 degree Celsius warming predicted by the computer models. However, the scientific
rule says: If actual observations tell you something that’s the opposite of your theory, change your theory.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior policy analyst for the United
States Department of State, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with
atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit,
Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Avery's book, Saving the Planet With Pesticides and Plastic: The Environmental
Triumph of High-Yield Farming (Washington, D.C.: Hudson Institute, 1995), continues to be popular as a readable overview
of realistic agriculture for the future and for today. Readers may write Avery at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421.
Email: cgfi@hughes.net
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume X, 2008
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity