THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XI, Issue # 108, April 20, 2009
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
WHERE'S THE RUNAWAY WARMING?
By Dennis T. Avery
CURRENTLY, THERE IS NO GLOBAL WARMING! THE GLOBAL COOLING TREND THAT BEGAN EARLY IN 2007
CONTINUES. THERE IS VERY LOW CORRELATION BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSTIONS & GLOBAL
TEMPERATURES, & THEREFORE NO REASON TO RUIN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY THROUGH EXORBITANT TAXATION &
EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENT REGULATION. WE WILL NEED MASSIVE "GLOBAL WARMING TEA PARTIES," IF THE U.S.
GOVERNMENT COMPLIES WITH THE DEMANDS OF THE ENVIRONMENTALISTS & ISSUES REGULATIONS TO CONTROL
CARBON DIOXIDE & OTHER GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. THE BALOONING COST OF SUCH REGULATIONS, IN BOTH
CARBON TAXES & EXPORTED JOBS, WOULD, IN THE LONG TERM, DWARF EVEN THE HUGE NEW U.S. NATIONAL DEBT
BEING IMPOSED ON US BY THE LIBERAL LEFTIST DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS & THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.
FULL STORY:
The global cooling trend that began early in 2007 continues. America’s official global reading for March, 2009, has
been issued by Goddard Space Institute. The month was the coldest of this young century and colder than March of
1990. The satellite records show an even stronger recent cooling trend.
Equally interesting, Goddard says this year’s March was just 0.03 degrees warmer than March of 1981, a year when
the El Nino/La Nina index was approximately the same as today’s. Does that mean the planet’s net warming is only
three hundredths of a degree C over the last 30 years? Thanks to Czech physicist Lubos Motl for spotting that
relationship.
Meanwhile, the Director of the Goddard Institute, James Hansen, recently sent a letter to President Barack Obama
saying that Obama has “only four years left to save the earth” from “runaway warming.” He told the London
Observer in February, 2009:
“The trains carrying coal to power plants are death
trains. Coal-fired power plants are factories of death.”
Hansen maintains that recent warming has pushed the planet close to a “tipping point” for runaway warming. What
recent warming? Three hundredths of a degree C over 30 years, with temperatures still declining, doesn’t seem worth
ruining the world’s economies.
Goddard’s famous computerized climate warming predictions continue to be wrong. In contrast, sunspots predicted
the temperature rise from 1976-1998, and sunspots began predicting the current cooling in 2000. Earth’s temperatures
have demonstrably been following changes in the earth’s cloudiness, which are linked — evidently through cosmic
rays — to the recently declining level of solar activity.
The sunspots and cosmic rays have a 79 percent correlation with our thermometer record since 1860. Meanwhile, the
CO2 correlation is a mere 22 percent. I love repeating that comparison! The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change already admitted in 2001 that it’s modeled “scenarios” cannot accurately predict cloud impacts on
temperatures.
In addition to the sunspots, NASA’s Jason satellite has confirmed the Pacific Ocean moving into its cool phase. Such
cooling phases last 30 years or so. During our last cooling phase, from 1940-1975, global warming should have surged,
if caused by industrial CO2 emissions. The world’s whole industrial revolution really kicked off in 1945. Soon after that,
the postwar explosion in auto emissions hit worldwide.
Hansen still claims that global warming is occurring rapidly, but has been masked by aerosols in the atmosphere. The
“lost heat” was supposedly lurking in the oceans. However, 3000 new Argo floats are giving us the most accurate sea
temperatures ever recorded, and they say the oceans stopped warming in 2003. If the oceans aren’t warming, neither is
the planet.
The ongoing cooling makes it horribly difficult for President Obama to issue his long-promised multi-trillion-dollar tax
on energy. Twenty-six Blue Dog Democrats recently voted against letting a carbon cap-and-trade ”tax” be attached to
the budget — and thus pass with less than the 60 votes otherwise required. It may now be left to the Environmental
Protection Agency to declare CO2 a human health hazard and try to regulate global warming under the Clean Air Act.
We’ll need still bigger “global warming tea parties,” if the EPA issues regulations to control greenhouse emissions.
The ballooning cost of such regulations, in both carbon taxes and exported jobs, would, in the long term, dwarf even
our huge new federal debt load.
SOURCES:
March global temperatures: Goddard Institute for Space Studies web site, Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index,
giss/nasa.gov/tabledata.GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, 4/15/ 2009.
Net warming of 0.03 degree C over 30 years: Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame,
motls.blogspot.com/2009/04/giss-march-2009-coolest-march-in-this.html.
James Hansen quotes:
”NASA’s Hansen Warns Barack Obama on Climate Change,” The Guardian, Jan. 1, 2009.
“Coal-fired Power Plants are Death Factories. Close Them,” Commentary by James Hansen, The Observer,
London, Feb 15, 2009.
IPCC’s inability to model cloud impacts: IPCC Report AR-3, 2001, section 7.2.2.4 Cloud-radiative feedback
processes.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Dennis T. Avery is an environmental economist, and a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.
He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable
Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years. Readers may write him at PO Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421 or email
to cgfi@hughes.net
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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