THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XII, Issue # 202, September 26, 2010
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
UN MILLENNIUM GOALS FLUNK REALITY CHECK
By Dennis T. Avery
WHY THE WORLD HAS FAILED TO MEET THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS SET BY THE UNITED NATIONS IN THE
YEAR 2000: WHY WE & OTHER PEOPLES OF THE WORLD SHOULD BE THANKFUL FOR THE FAILURE -- THE ECONOMIC
DEATH-WISH INVOLVED IN REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 50 PERCENT -- ORGANIC AGRICULTURE & THE
SUSTAINABILITY OR UNSUSTAINABILITY OF FOOD PRODUCTION -- MINIMIZED USE OF AGRO-CHEMICALS, INCREASED
LOW-YIELD FARMING, DECREASED WILDLAND AREAS, & BIODIVERSITY LOSSES -- REDUCED HUMAN CONSUMPTION OF
ANIMAL PROTEIN & THE EPHEMERAL ECOLOGICAL GAINS RESULTING THEREFROM
FULL STORY:
On the 10th. birthday of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals, officials are lamenting that the world has made little
progress in meeting them. No one should be surprised.
Goal # 1 is to cut greenhouse emissions by 50 percent. The UN says this is clearly within reach, if there’s the “political
will.” “Economic death-wish” would be a better term. The UN wants us to give up 85 percent of our energy system, and
use expensive, erratic solar and wind energy that would do little to reduce greenhouse emissions.
More importantly, we haven’t gotten the massive global warming so long predicted by the computer models. If James Hansen
had been correct in his 1988 predictions to Congress, the planet would already be some 2 degrees warmer today than it
is. Nor did the computer models predict the Pacific Ocean’s 2008 shift into a massive cool phase, which now looks likely
to cool the planet for the next 30 years. Let’s wait for the current La Nina to fade and see what sort of actual warming
cycle we are facing.
UN Goal #2: Convert at least 40 percent of agricultural lands to ecologically sustainable production, with minimized use
of agro-chemicals, and expanded use of techniques that reduce soil erosion and run-off and that maintain high levels of
biodiversity.
Holy contradictions, Batman!
The most deadly risk from pesticides is that Indian farmers will use them to commit suicide when they can’t pay their
debts. Such suicides account for the vast majority of the 100,000 pesticide deaths per year. Accidental ingestion is the
other biggie.
Meanwhile, the weeds, bedbugs, mosquitoes, and viral crop diseases continue to mutate and proliferate. The chemical
companies only make money if their pesticides can safely be approved for use — and suppress pests.
A 2007 University of Michigan study claimed organic farming could produce all the food the world will need, by getting
nitrogen from green manure crops. Unfortunately the study overestimated the nitrogen such green manure crops could
contribute to food production by at least three-fold. Across the developing world, the crop plants remain starved for
nitrogen, and Africa is headed for a truly massive Dust Bowl with accompanying famine.
The UN says it wants “expanded use of techniques that reduce soil erosion and run-off.” No-till farming is now being
used on millions of hectares of vulnerable lands around the world, cutting soil erosion by up to 95 percent, and virtually
eliminating runoff. But the system can’t work without herbicides — which the UN wants to ban.
Finally, claims of impending biodiversity losses are now becoming fashionable again as the global warming scare wanes.
A decade ago, I estimated high-yield farming had saved about 7 million square miles of wildlands from being plowed for
more low-yield crops, about the land area of South America. Stanford University recently concluded high-yield farming
has saved 6.6 million square miles of wildlife, about the land area of Russia. By far the biggest thing we can do to save
biodiversity is to double the yields on the existing cropland — using inputs the UN wants to ban.
The only goal offered in the UN Millennium goals that might work is #4: Reduce average animal protein intake among
rich people by 20 percent. I’m not sure eating somewhat less meat would hurt us rich people, but the UN needs to revisit
its math. Livestock eat huge amounts of stuff humans can’t digest — grass, cottonseed hulls, citrus rinds, and rice straw
— along with whatever high-yield corn escapes becoming ethanol. The ecological gains from Meatless Fridays are likely to
be as ephemeral as the environmental gains we’re supposedly getting from corn ethanol and Jimmy Carter’s solar panels
on the White House roof.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Agriculture, the Economy, & Human Health & Welfare:
Policy Issues Relating to Food Production & Consumption
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Dennis T. Avery is an environmental economist for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., as well as Director of the
Institute's Center for Global Food Issues (CGFI) and Editor of Global Food Quarterly, the newsletter of the CGFI.
Formerly he was a senior policy analyst for the United States Department of State, where he won the National Intelligence
Medal of Achievement. He is co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book,Unstoppable Global
Warming: Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit, Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Avery's book, Saving
the Planet With Pesticides and Plastic: The Environmental Triumph of High-Yield Farming (Washington, D.C.: Hudson
Institute, 1995 and 2000), continues to be popular as a readable overview of realistic agriculture for the future and for today.
Readers may write Avery at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421. Email: cgfi@hughes.net
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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