THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 36, February 4, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
WHY EGYPT WILL NOT SOON BECOME
A CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY
By Dr. Daniel Pipes
PROSPECTS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT: A STABLE, CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRATIC
SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE IMMEDIATE OUTCOME OF THE CURRENT UPRISING AGAINST THE
MUBARAK REGIME IN EGYPT. SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN HOLDING ELECTIONS & MAJORITY RULE, CONSTITUTIONAL
DEMOCRACY REQUIRES THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY, MEANING SUCH COMPLEX & COUNTERINTUITIVE
INSTITUTIONS AS THE RULE OF LAW, AN INDEPENDENT JUDICIARY, MULTIPLE POLITICAL PARTIES, MINORITY RIGHTS,
VOLUNTARY ASSOCIATIONS, & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION, MOVEMENT, & ASSEMBLY. CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY IS
A LEARNED HABIT THAT REQUIRES DEEP ATTITUTUDINAL CHANGES SUCH AS A CULTURE OF RESTRAINT, A
COMMONALITY OF VALUES, A RESPECT FOR DIFFERENCES OF VIEW, THE CONCEPT OF LOYAL OPPOSITION, & A SENSE OF
CIVIC RESPONSIBILITY. SUCH A TRANSFORMATION OF SOCIETY TAKES DECADES, IF NOT CENTURIES, TO FULLY
IMPLEMENT.
FULL STORY:
Two reasons lead me to assert that the Arab Republic of Egypt will not boast a constitutional democratic political system at
this time next year.
First, constitutional democracy is more than holding elections; it requires the development of civil society, meaning such
complex and counterintuitive institutions as the rule of law, an independent judiciary, multiple political parties, minority
rights, voluntary associations, and freedom of expression, movement, and assembly. Constitutional democracy is a learned
habit, not an instinctive one, that requires deep attitudinal changes such as a culture of restraint, a commonality of values, a
respect for differences of view, the concept of loyal opposition, and a sense of civic responsibility.
Further, elections need to be practiced to be made perfect. Ideally, a country starts electing at the municipal level and moves
to the national level, it begins with the legislative branch and moves to the executive. Simultaneously, the press needs to
acquire full freedoms, political parties should mature, parliament should gain authority at the expense of the executive, and
judges should adjudicate between them.
Such a transformation of society cannot take place within months or even years; the historical record shows that it takes
decades fully to implement. It is out of the question that an Egypt with minor experience in democracy can put together
enough of these components in twelve months to establish a fully constitutional and democratic order.
Second, whichever scenario one plays out, constitutional democracy is not in the offing.
If Hosni Mubarak stays in power, unlikely but possible, he will be more of a tyrant than ever. As shown by his actions in
recent days, he will not go quietly.
If the military asserts more directly the power that it has wielded behind the scenes since its coup d'état of 1952, Omar
Suleiman, the newly-appointed Vice President, would presumably become President. He would make changes in the
system, eliminating the most obvious abuses under Mubarak, but not fundamentally offering Egyptians a say in the
regime that rules them. Algeria 1992, where a military-backed government repressed Islamists, provides a precedent.
If Islamists come to power, they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran in 1979, in which their belief in God's
sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. The inherently anti-democratic and anti-constitutional nature of
the Islamist movement must not be obscured by the Islamists' willingness to use elections to reach power. In the prescient
words of an American official in 1992, the Islamists forward a program of "one person, one vote, one time."
However looked at – abstractly or specifically – Egyptians are in for a rough ride ahead, without imminent prospect of
choosing their leaders.
© Daniel Pipes 2010
Originally Published in The Economist, February 4, 2011
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from the Daniel Pipes Mailing List, February 4, 2011
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/9420/democratic-egypt
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Egypt, Arabs, & the Middle East
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
North Africa -- The Arab States of Islamic North Africa
The Middle East & the Arabs
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY & OTHER POLITICAL REGIMES
Modern Constitutional Democracy:
Fundamental Character & Essential Ingredients
Constitutionalism: The First Essential Ingredient
of Modern Constitutional Democracy
Dictatorship: The Opposite of Constitutionalism
Representative Democracy: The Second Essential Ingredient
of Modern Constitutional Democracy
Direct Democracy & Representative Democracy
Political Culture & Modern Constitutional Democracy
Modern Constitutional Democracy:
Summary & Conclusion
Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and Director of the Middle East Forum,
Publisher of Middle East Quarterly,
Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a
signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former
adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free
Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a
former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of
Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.
Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page
Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and
developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington
Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network
television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the
U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately
twenty-five countries.
Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into
American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history
and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the
worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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