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Volume XIV, Issue # 27, February 7, 2012
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KASTELORIZO: MEDITERRANEAN FLASHPOINT?
By Dr. Daniel Pipes

GREECE, GREEK ISLANDS, CYPRUS, ISRAEL, TURKEY, & MIDDLE EASTERN GEOPOLITICS:  KASTELORIZO, EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES, & MASSIVE OFF-SHORE GAS & OIL DISCOVERIES -- THE EMERGING ALLIANCE OF GREECE, CYPRUS, & ISRAEL -- MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO TRANSPORT CYPRIOT & ISRAELI NATURAL GAS OR ELECTRICITY TO WESTERN EUROPE WITHOUT TURKEY'S PERMISSION -- HEIGHTENED TURKISH AGGRESSIVENESS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
FULL STORY:   Remember the name Kastelorizo. You heard it here first.

It is the far-flung, easternmost island of Greece, 80 miles from Rhodes, 170 miles west of Cyprus, but just 1 mile off the coast of Turkey. Kastelorizo, or officially Megisti, is tiny, comprising just 5 square miles, plus some yet smaller, uninhabited islands. Its 430 inhabitants are way down from 10,000 in the late Nineteenth Century. The Lonely Planet travel guide has picked it as one of the four best Greek islands (out of thousands) for diving and snorkeling. There's no public transportation from nearby Anatolia, only from distant Rhodes by airplane or ferry.

That Athens controls this wisp of land off the coast of Anatolia, implies it could (but does not yet) claim an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Mediterranean Sea that reduces the Turkish EEZ to a fraction of what it would be were the island under Ankara's control.

Were Athens to claim its full EEZ, Kastelorizo's presence would make its EEZ contiguous with the EEZ of Cyprus, a factor with great import now, at a moment of massive off-shore gas and oil discoveries. Kastelorizo, with an EEZ, benefits the emerging Greece-Cyprus-Israel alliance by making it possible to transport either Cypriot and Israeli natural gas (via pipeline) or electricity (via cable) to Western Europe without Turkish permission. This has taken on special urgency since November 4, 2011, when Turkey's Minister of Energy, Taner Yildiz, announced that his government would not permit Israeli natural gas to transit Turkish territory; Ankara will likely also ban Cypriot exports.

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AKP party colleagues accept Greek control of Kastelorizo and its six nautical miles of territorial waters, but not more, and certainly not its full EEZ rights. Indeed, in their eyes, Greek assertion of an EEZ constitutes a casus belli. By neutering Kastelorizo, Ankara can lay claim to a large economic area in the Mediterranean and block cooperation among its adversaries. This is why the island could become a flashpoint.

Several developments point to AKP intimidation of Greece concerning Kastelorizo. First, in September, 2011, the Turkish government authorized a Norwegian ship, the Bergen Surveyor, accompanied by other sea craft, to begin prospecting for gas and oil south of Kastelorizo, including some of the island's continental shelf. Second, Turkish warships have trained with live ammunition between Rhodes and Kastelorizo. Finally, Turkish military aircraft four times in 2011 overflew Kastelorizo without permission, sometimes very low with reconnaissance aircraft.

This bellicosity fits a larger pattern. The AKP government, especially since it has taken full control of the Armed Forces in late July, has shown increasing hostility toward Cyprus, Israel, Syria, and Iraq. In addition, Ankara has long denied Cyprus its EEZ, so doing the same vis--vis Kastelorizo builds on an established policy. Indeed, the Turks' brutal, napalm-assisted 1974 conquest of the northern 36 percent of Cyprus set a precedent for seizing nearby island territory. Grabbing Kastelorizo would require about as much time as reading this article.

So far, responses to heightened Turkish aggressiveness in the Mediterranean have focused on deterring Turkish feints toward gas and oil reserves in the Cypriot EEZ, with navies and statements from the United States and Russia backing the Republic of Cyprus' right to exploit its economic resources. Cypriot President Demetris Christofias warned that if Ankara persists with its gunboat diplomacy, "there will be consequences which, for sure, will not be good." Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told the Greeks that, "If anyone tries to challenge these drillings, we will meet those challenges" and his government enhanced security not only for its own maritime fields but also for drilling areas in Cypriot waters. On at least one occasion, Israeli warplanes have confronted Turkish ships.

Such clear signals of resolve are welcome. As the European Union pushes Greece to drill for hydrocarbons to find new sources of income, it should also support Athens declaring its EEZ, reject AKP troublemaking vis--vis Kastelorizo, and clearly indicate the dire results for Turkey of any trouble-making toward an island now happily renowned for its diving and snorkeling.


2012 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
Originally Published in National Review Online, February 7, 2012
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from the Daniel Pipes Mailing List, February 7, 2012
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/10630/kastelorizo


LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Greece, Greek Islands, Cyprus, Turkey,
& the Eastern Mediterranean

Cyprus on the World Stage -- Cyprus & Its Neighbors

Turkey, the Middle East, Israel, & the U.S.A.

Israel, Arabs, & the Islamic Middle East -- The Israeli-Arab Conflict;
Israeli Politics, Government, & Public Policy -- Public Issues & Controversies;
The State of Israel in War & Peace -- Israel's Role in International Relations;
Israeli Military Defense & National Security -- The Israeli Economy

American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East

International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security

   Page Two    Page One



Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and President of the Middle East Forum, Publisher of Middle East Quarterly, Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.

Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately twenty-five countries.

Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.




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