THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIV, Issue # 32, February 14, 2012
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
UNKNOWN VOLCANOES CAUSED THE LITTLE ICE AGE?
By Dennis T. Avery
THE LITTLE ICE AGES: WHAT CAUSED LITTLE ICE AGES IN PLANET EARTH'S NATURAL HISTORY, VOLCANIC ACTIVITY OR SOLAR ACTIVITY? PROBLEMS
WITH THE RESEARCH & CONCLUSIONS OF THE RESEARCH TEAM LED BY DR. GIFFORD MILLER -- WHAT THE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE DEMONSTRATES
FULL STORY:
Here we go again. Regular readers will remember that, a couple of weeks ago, Christopher Columbus was being blamed for the Little Ice Age (AD 1300 to 1850). Now,
a new computer “study” announced that volcanoes caused the Little Ice Age! A research team led by Dr. Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado says eruptions
of four volcanoes just before AD 1300 spewed huge amounts of sulphates into the air, which cooled the Arctic and “grew” the Arctic ice sheets and glaciers.
I find a few problems with this “news,” starting with the reality that the Little Ice Age lasted about 550 years! How do volcanic eruptions — even from four very big
volcanoes — throw up enough space dust to cool the planet for five centuries!? Two years, certainly, perhaps even ten years for an awesome eruption such as
Krakatoa in 1883 — but not 500. Climate historian Hubert Lamb notes that “in 1783, when there were two very great eruptions — in Iceland and in Japan — in the
same year, the combined effect may have been a cooling of the northern hemisphere by 1.3 degrees Celsius, gradually tailing away to zero over the following four or
five years.”
My second problem is that Dr. Miller doesn’t know which volcanoes erupted! His team suspects the spewing mountains were in the tropics. Their global computer
model told them that the Little Ice Age must have been touched off by volcanic eruptions. So, even though they haven’t found the culprit mountains, we are
expected to accept the theory. These are the global climate models that have already predicted far more global warming than we’ve gotten, and whose programmers
forgot to put in the Medieval Warming. Now they’re inventing volcanic eruptions whose residues have not been found in the volcanic sediment record.
Third, how do we explain the hundreds of previous “little ice ages” found in the seabed sediments from the past million years? Those cycles have also been
confirmed from ice cores, boreholes, fossil pollen, and glacier cycling. How do volcanoes explain cyclical events, which have a 79 percent correlation with the
sunspot cycles?
How does Dr. Miller explain the archeology and sediment records that show what’s now Iraq has been through seven “little ice ages” over the past 5500 years?
Each time, the abrupt climate change started with a 300-year drought, not with any known big volcanic eruption. Egypt went through six famine collapses, at the same
times as the awful Iraq droughts. Egyptians were recorded at the time as eating their own children! This all happened because the tropic rain belts shift 500 miles north
and south during the 1,500-year cycles, with often-disastrous results.
The evidence shows it’s the sun and its activities, not volcanoes, that have caused the “little ice ages.” The real trick now is to predict the onset of the next “little ice
age” enough in advance to stock up on grain and long underwear. That next intense cold period is when we’ll find out firsthand why we should appreciate our
current “global warming.” Human numbers tripled during the Medieval Warming; then half of that expanded population died in the famines and disease epidemics of
the Little Ice Age.
The 1,500-year cycle has been extremely regular during the Great Ice Ages, at roughly 1470 years. During the warm periods like our Holocene Warming, it is less
regular, but has still dominated our climate. The Medieval Warming lasted only 350 years, while the Roman Warming lasted 800 years. We can’t predict accurately yet
when the next “Little Ice Age” will arrive, but there is no question that it will be a real test of sustainability for human societies. Or we may get the next full Ice Age. I
wonder which volcano will cause that.
RESOURCES:
G. Miller, et al., “Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean.” Geophysical Research Letters, (Vol.39, L02708,
5PP,2012)
Hubert Lamb, Climate and the History of the Modern World (London, Routledge Press, 1995), 324.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Dennis T. Avery, a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., is an environmental economist. He was formerly a senior analyst for the U.S.
Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer of Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years. Readers may write to him at PO Box 202,
Churchville, VA 2442; send email to cgfi@hughes.net; or visit on the Internet at www.cgfi.org
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume XIV, 2011
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity