THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VII, Issue # 131, June 15, 2005
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
HOW THE LEBANESE WON BACK THEIR FREEDOM
By Walid Phares
THE CEDAR REVOLUTION: THE MOVEMENT TO BRING CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY TO LEBANON -- WHAT IS
NECESSARY FOR THE CEDAR REVOLUTION TO SUCCEED? LEBANESE POLITICIANS' TAKING STEPS TO DISARM HEZBOLLAH
& THEIR CUTTING TIES WITH ELEMENTS OF THE FORMER SYRIAN OCCUPATION REGIME
FULL STORY:
Since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, four major benchmarks have had an impact on Lebanese politics: the 9/11
Islamist terrorist attacks on the U.S.A., the Syria Accountability Act, the war in Iraq, and the assassination of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri. Each of these events helped to propel the movement for constitutional democratic reform within Lebanon and
facilitate the cooperation among Lebanese Christian groups and some Sunni and Shiite Muslim groups who back this initiative.
However, the overall effort to bring constitutional democracy to Lebanon, known as the Cedar Revolution, has its roots in the 1980s,
and this movement was reinforced by development, in the 1990s, of growing Lebanese opposition to the Syrian military occupation of
Lebanon.
Prior to 9/11, the Wahhabi/Islamist/Arabist lobbies led by the Saudis in Washington, D.C., were able to vouch for Syrian hegemony
in Lebanon and perpetuate the Syrian occupation. These lobbies protected the interests of Arab/Muslim dictatorships in the Middle
East, essentially quashing pro-democracy movements like that in Lebanon. After 9/11, however, the dynamics of these lobbies shifted.
The Saudis needed to focus their complete attention on protecting their own interests, specifically in defending their alleged alliance
with the United States. As a result, lobbying efforts to the U.S. Congress on behalf of the Syrian occupation in Lebanon terminated.
This consequence, coupled with the general U.S. interest in all things related to the Middle East and terror that sprang up after 9/11
paved the way for the Lebanese pro-democracy movement to effectively speak out against the Syrian occupation and against the
Syrian political regime, which is a state sponsor of terror.
The second significant event that helped bolster the Cedar Revolution was the U.S. government's Syria Accountability Act, which
aimed to pressure the Syrians to end their occupation of Lebanon.
The third event was the regime change in Iraq that began in March, 2003. In March, 2004, after the liberation of Iraq, a delegation
representing thousands of Lebanese around the world started lobbying for change in Lebanon. In addition, groups in Lebanon that
did not support Baathists -- such as the Sunnis and Druzes -- viewed the fall of Saddam Hussein's Baath regime as an opportunity to rally
against Assad's Syrian Baath regime. The Iraqi vote in January, 2005, then gave the pro-democracy movement within and without
Lebanon tremendous encouragement. If constitutional democracy could take hold in Iraq, why not in Lebanon?
Finally came the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005. Hariri, a former ally of Syria, had distanced himself from the regime and started
campaigning on behalf of constitutional democratic reform. His assassination, which is surely linked to a Syrian plot, was a last effort
by the regime in Damascus to maintain its hegemony in Lebanon and also sabotage the reform movement and prevent constitutional
democracy from taking hold in the region. The Assad regime has, for example, been active in the campaign of promoting anti-American
sentiment in the Middle East by aiding the insurgency against American troops in Iraq. The Syrians fear that constitutional democracy
in Iraq, Lebanon, or in the region as a whole will put tremendous pressure on the Syrian Baath dictatorship to undergo constitutional
democratic reforms of its own.
But the Hariri assassination backfired, inadvertently placing tremendous pressure on the Syrian regime to withdraw from Lebanon.
Following the killing of Hariri on March 14, 2005, the Lebanese people held the largest pro-democracy rally ever in the Middle East,
drawing worldwide attention to their cause. In sympathy with Lebanese democratic interests, the U.S.A., France, and Britain set an
April 30, 2005, deadline for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Twenty days before that deadline, these states sent five war vessels
through the Suez Canal to scare Syria away from the idea of not adhering to the American, French, and British demand. Consequently,
the Syrians officially withdrew from Lebanon by the deadline.
Despite this breakthrough by a pro-democracy coalition in Lebanon, its fight against Syria is not over. Although Syria withdrew its
official army, it kept in place its unofficial army, typified by the Islamist Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and other Syrian intelligence
manifestations. These elements will seek to block the efforts of constitutional democratic reform. Furthermore, the former Syrian
dictator, Hafez al-Assad, signed an agreement in 1991 with Lebanon giving the Syrian army the right to reoccupy Lebanon following
a withdrawal, provided a Lebanese government supports Syrian occupation. This agreement may be used in the future by Damascus
to block developments in Lebanon.
The Cedar Revolution depends on the new Lebanese political establishment. If the Lebanese politicians truly want to promote
constitutional democracy, they will take steps to disarm Hezbollah and cut ties with the former Syrian occupation regime. If these
measures are not taken, backsliding could well take place.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East -- Lebanon as a Geopolitical Problem
The Middle East & the Problem of Syria
The Middle East & the Arabs
The Threat of Radical Islam
More on the Threat of Radical Islam
War & Peace in the Real World
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Walid Phares is professor of Middle East studies at Florida Atlantic University and a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies. Born and raised in Lebanon, he earned his Ph.D. from the University of Miami. He is widely published in scholarly
journals, including the Middle East Quarterly, where he has written about Lebanon and Middle Eastern minorities, and is a
regular commentator on terrorism and Middle East issues on MSNBC. He addressed the Middle East Forum in Philadelphia on
May 19, 2005.
The foregoing briefing by Walid Phares was posted originally on the Internet website maintained by the
Middle East Forum.
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
June 13, 2005
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