THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 98, June 9, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
DIPLOMACY IS NOT ENOUGH
By Dr. Michael Rubin
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE WEST & IRAN: THE INADEQUACY OF DIPLOMACY AS THE MEANS TO INDUCE IRAN'S
ISLAMIST POLITICAL REGIME TO END ITS EFFORTS TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- IF IRAN CONTINUES TO DEFY THE
WEST, THE LATTER SHOULD CONSIDER MILITARY STRIKES & TARGETED SANCTIONS, AS WELL AS INCREASE ITS SUPPORT
OF INDEPENDENT CIVIL SOCIETY & DISSIDENT GROUPS IN IRAN -- THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC SHOULD BE MADE ACCPONTABLE
TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE
FULL STORY:
On May 31, 2006, Condoleezza Rice, United States Secretary of State, offered Iran a deal: suspend nuclear enrichment in
exchange for a package of incentives, including de facto U.S. recognition of Iran's Islamist political regime. But engagement
alone will not solve the crisis. Between 2000 and 2005, European Union trade with Iran almost tripled. But the Iranian
authorities invested their additional income, not into schools and hospitals, but, rather, into Iran's nuclear programme.
Tehran has become conditioned to associating concessions with non-compliance. Indeed, further incentives may make a
crisis more likely, rather than less likely. U.S. President George W. Bush is serious when he says: "the development of a
nuclear weapon in Iran is intolerable."
Iranian reformers do not offer a way out. While the rhetoric of hardline Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has
shocked Western officials, Iran's nuclear programme is no recent phenomenon, but, rather, the product of the
administrations of Ahmadinejad's predecessors, the reformist Muhammad Khatami and pragmatist Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani. Nor should diplomats assume that Tehran is motivated by security concerns. Iran's covert programme pre-dates
U.S. presence in both Afghanistan and Iraq. While Israel occupies a paramount position in regime rhetoric, no Iranian has
ever died in a war with the Jewish state.
The idea that there exists a magic diplomatic formula to bring Iranian behaviour back in line is the product of the faulty
assumption that motivation for the regime's programme is external. Seventy percent of Iranians were born or came of age
after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Polling and anecdotal evidence suggest that only 20 per cent of Iranians still believe in the
wisdom of theocracy. Yet, there is no question that the unelected Supreme Leader and those surrounding him believe their
sovereignty rests with God, not the people. To them, public opinion and demography are irrelevant. While pundits may hope
for gradual reform or a "saffron revolution," true believers will not compromise their ideology. A nuclear deterrent enables
them to crush dissent at home, without fear of outside interference. China model? Think ten Tiananmen Squares.
European officials point out the difficulty of military action. While air strikes would set back Iran's programme, they would
not eliminate it. Iranians would certainly rally around their flag. The regime might lash out. It could destabilise Iraq or engage
in terrorism. It could disrupt oil supplies. But, if it felt itself secure behind a nuclear deterrent, it could do the same. No matter
how costly military strikes may be, however, they remain possible, as the White House calculates that the cost of allowing
the Islamic Republic to possess nuclear weapons would be higher, given the possibility that the regime might use them.
But debate need not be limited to advocating diplomacy or defending a military strike. Between the extremes is an arsenal of
tools which could be applied if Iran continues to defy the international community. While comprehensive sanctions are
unlikely, given high oil prices, more targeted sanctions are possible. For example, just as the international community once
curtailed air service into Libya, it could do so into Iran. Freezing the bank accounts of Iran's corrupt leadership would be
popular among ordinary Iranians and inflict pain only upon those who deserve it.
While the chattering classes dismissed Bush's "axis of evil" rhetoric as unsophisticated, Iran's inclusion was not cowboy
rhetoric, but, rather, a non-violent effort to apply economic pressure. It worked. Foreign investment in Iran dropped.
The European Union should not let ongoing diplomacy stop investment in independent civil society. The West should not
hesitate to support independent, unlicensed civil society groups and trade unions, even if Iranian authorities declare such
groups illegal. The dangers from the Islamic Republic come from its government's lack of accountability to its people, who
are far more moderate. The West should invest in independent Iranian media, which could better explain Western concerns
over the Iranian regime's behavior. Western governments might be surprised by how receptive ordinary Iranians would be:
while Iranian government-sponsored polls indicate 77 per cent of Iranians support Tehran's nuclear stance, support drops
precipitously when independent pollsters ask whether Iranians would feel comfortable if their leaders possessed nuclear
weapons.
The West should also support Iranian dissidents. Besieged Iranian journalists have become engines for change. It is
incumbent upon European diplomats to recognise their courage. When imprisoned journalists receive medical furlough,
Iranians line up to visit them. European diplomats ignore them. The silence of the British, French, and German embassies
makes a mockery of European human rights rhetoric and gives carte blanche to the regime to continue its abuses.
Dissidents have little to lose; they have already proved their mettle and put their lives on the line. If British officials
demanded to see Ahmad Batebi, the young student imprisoned after the 1999 student protests for the crime of having his
photograph put on the cover of the Economist, the effect would be enormous.
The Gdansk model should be emulated, especially as labor unrest grows in Iran. Independent unions would force the regime
to be accountable to its people. Textile workers in Gilan, bus drivers in Tehran, and refinery workers in Abadan all deserve
respect. Rather than invest its money in nuclear centrifuges, the Iranian leadership might pay the back wages of workers in
government-owned factories.
The Iranian Supreme Leader is unelected and wields absolute power for life. The Council of Guardians disqualified more than
1,000 presidential candidates before the last elections for insufficient revolutionary fervor. If there is to be a lasting solution
to the Iranian crisis, the West must address the question of how to make the Iranian regime accountable to its constituents.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East & the Problem of Iran
Military Weaponry & International Security:
Weapons of Mass Destruction & Arms Control
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Ph.D. in History (Yale University) and a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, Islamic culture and Islamist
ideology, is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public
Policy Research. Dr Rubin is author of Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, 2001) and is co-author, with Dr. Patrick Clawson, of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave
Macmillan, 2005). Dr. Rubin served as political advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003-2004); staff
advisor on Iran and Iraq in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense (2002-2004); visiting lecturer in the Departments of
History and International Relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2001-2002); visiting lecturer at the Universities of
Sulaymani, Salahuddin, and Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan (2000-2001); Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy (1999-2000); and visiting lecturer in the Department of History at Yale University (1999-2000). He has been a fellow at
the Council of Foreign Relations, the Leonard Davis Institute at Hebrew University, and the Carnegie Council on Ethics and
International Affairs.
The foregoing article by Dr. Michael Rubin was originally published in Prospect. June, 2006, and can be found on the
Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum.
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
June 7, 2006
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