THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 178, September 17, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
"PEAK OIL," OR LOTS MORE OIL?
By Alan Caruba
AMERICA'S ENERGY NEEDS & OIL RESERVES: NEWLY DISCOVERED PETROLEUM DEPOSITS BELOW THE SURFACE OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO -- A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN U.S. OIL RESERVES -- EXPLOSION OF THE "PEAK OIL" THEORY HOLDING
THAT, IN OUR LIFETIMES, THE WORLD WILL RUN OUT OF OIL -- MIDDLE EASTERN OIL RESERVES, OTHER SOURCES OF
PETROLEUM, GEOPOLITICS, WAR & PEACE, & A NEW DEGREE OF ENERGY INDEPENDENCE & NATIONAL SECURITY FOR THE
U.S.A.
FULL STORY:
In May, 2006, I wrote, “I know about the 'Peak Oil' theory that says we either have reached or are about the reach the point
of diminishing returns regarding the world’s oil supply, but these recent discoveries suggest there is still plenty of oil to
be found.” In that commentary, I documented nearly a dozen new fields of oil and natural gas discovered since 1995.
So, I wasn’t surprised when, on September 5, 2006, Chevron Corporation announced it had discovered new, huge reserves
of oil some five miles below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. The initial estimates were that these reserves “could boost
U.S. oil reserves by 50 percent.”
Good news for Americans and good news as well for other oil companies, such as BP, Anadarko Petroleum and Exxon
Mobil, that have their own projects in progress. Indeed, two days later, Exxon Mobil announced that its Sakhalin-1 project
offshore Russia had begun to export crude oil, the eighth startup within the past year.
Suffice it to say, the new Gulf of Mexico discovery rivals the discovery of Alaska’s giant Prudhoe Bay oil field in 1968.
President George Bush may think we’re “addicted” to oil and, along with other politicians, call for oil “independency,” but
the fact is we, like every other modern nation, require oil for transportation, plastics, heating homes, and the countless
other uses to which we put petroleum.
Recently, Abdallah Jum’ah, President and CEO of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil, better known as Aramco, said the
world has the potential of 4.5 trillion barrels in reserves. At current levels of consumption, that’s 140 years worth of oil to
power the world. Even at the lowest level of estimated reserves, there’s still enough until 2070, and does anyone believe
we will not find more?
While the vast Middle Eastern reserves remain an important source of oil for the world, the geopolitical game just changed
for the better, as far as America is concerned. The Gulf of Mexico discovery insures a new degree of independence and
security. Think how much more we could achieve now that the twenty-five year old federal ban on offshore exploration has
been lifted?
The next question is whether Florida, for example, will relent and permit more oil exploration and extraction off its shores,
instead of sitting around while China, in cooperation with Cuba, drills for oil? Indeed, potentially every state on the east
and west coasts of America could contribute to our oil independence by permitting greater oil exploration and
extraction to occur.
The Consumer Alliance for Energy Security estimates that “The Outer Continental Shelf has enough natural gas to heat 100
million homes for 60 years and enough oil to drive 85 million cars for 35 years.”
Meanwhile, the estimated billions of barrels of oil trapped beneath Alaska’s ANWR are still waiting to be tapped! If we can
just get the tree-huggers and their politician-pals to get out of way, we can all happily drive to grandma’s house for the next
generation or two.
In the September 11, 3006, edition of U.S. News & World Report, reporter Bay Feng wrote that the map of central
Asia is being pored over by governments and oil company executives who call it the hub and spoke. “The hub is the
Caspian Sea and the spokes are the multiple pipe lines emanating from it, representing potential export routes for the vast
oil and gas resources that lie beneath.”
Let me repeat: “. . . the vast oil and gas resources that lie beneath.” So, while Chevron was announcing vast new oil and gas
resources in the Gulf of Mexico, one leading news magazine was devoting its pages to yet another area that promises more
of the same. In fact, it is believed “to be among the world’s largest untapped fossil fuel resources.”
We’re talking about resources that are not subject to the threats that exist for those in the Persian Gulf area, resources
controlled by the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Even Russia, the world’s second
largest producer and exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia, and the largest producer of natural gas, will feel the competition.
The new “Great Game” of central Asia is to wean the nations in the region from their dependency on Russia to export their
oil and gas. For that you need pipelines. “That’s why U.S. officials,” wrote Feng, “have been pushing the $4 billion
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which opened with much fanfare in July, 2006, and links Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.”
Places most Americans have never heard of and couldn’t find on a map hold tremendous potential to relieve worldwide
dependency on Middle Eastern oil and gas. Kazakhstan, the largest nation in central Asia, “has three of the world’s
richest hydrocarbon fields.”
Meanwhile, it’s worth remembering that predictions that the world was running out of oil date back to when oil was
discovered in 1874 in Pennsylvania. By 1920, geologists calculated the world had at best 60 billion barrels. By 1950, the
world’s oil supplies were estimated at 2 trillion barrels. Prior to the discovery of vast new reserves in the Gulf of Mexico,
the U.S. known reserves were calculated to meet domestic needs for anywhere from 38 to 75 years.
Peak oil? A world running out of oil in our lifetimes? I don’t think so.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Alan Caruba is a veteran business and science writer, a Public Relations Counselor, and Founder of the National Anxiety Center, a
clearinghouse for information about media-driven scare campaigns. Caruba writes a weekly commentary, "Warning Signs," posted
on the Internet website of the National Anxiety Center, which is located at
www.anxietycenter.com.
Caruba’s new book, Right Answers: Separating Fact from Fantasy, has been published by Merril Press.
© Alan Caruba 2006
Published with Permission of Alan Caruba
ACaruba@AOL.Com
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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