THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 194, October 8, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
PREDICTING HURRICANES
By Alan Caruba
GLOBAL WARMING THEORY, PREDICTING HURRICANES, & PSEUDO-SCIENCE: THE INABILITY OF THE BEST
METEOROLOGISTS USING THE BEST AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT HURRICANES -- THE
PSEUDO-SCIENCE SURROUNDING THE NOTION OF HUMAN-CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING & THE ATTEMPTS TO LINK
HURRICANES TO GLOBAL WARMING -- GAPING HOLES IN THE CLAIM OF PSEUDO-SCIENTISTS & POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENTALISTS THAT THE EARTH IS DOOMED, DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING; THAT THE GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSED
BY HUMAN ACTIVITY; & THAT THE GLOBAL WARMING IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, &
DESTRUCTIVENESS OF HURRICANES
FULL STORY:
This nation of ours is home to some of the best meteorologists using some of the best technology available. This does not
mean they have any idea what the weather will be two weeks from now. With this in mind, I offer you part two of my April,
2006, ruminations on the 2006 hurricane season.
In April, I reminded people that hurricanes have been showing up off the East and Gulf coasts for millennia. It wasn’t until
millions of people started jamming themselves together in those scenic areas that the damage wrought by hurricanes became
a problem. The ocean views are wonderful, but not when they’re in your living room.
Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University has gained a reputation as a predictor of hurricanes and I pointed out that, in
2005, he had concluded there would be 13 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes. In 2005, there were 28 storms and 15
of them became hurricanes. One of them flattened New Orleans and a huge swath of Mississippi for good measure.
In April, 2006, however, Dr. Gray was back, predicting 17 storms powerful enough to be named, of which 9 would become
hurricanes. By early October, he downgraded his forecast, predicting only one more hurricane this year and two more
named storms. He did not anticipate any intense hurricanes like Katrina.
So far, the Atlantic basin has seen 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes. None have represented a significant problem to
coastal residents. Dr. Gray says he’s less worried about a really big, bad hurricane. Call me a cynic, but I would say it’s
probably time for everyone on the East and Gulf coasts to buy an inflatable rubber boat.
Okay, I admit it, I am picking on this distinguished scientist, but I am also amused and informed by the way Mother Nature
pays no attention to his calculations, computations, informed assumptions, and ultimately his predictions.
Why did he downgrade his 2006 prediction? A weather cycle called El Nino in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Turns
out that November activity during El Nino years is very rare, thus reducing the prospect of more storms and hurricanes.
Meanwhile, in the headquarters of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a big fight broke out
over a position paper authored by some of its scientists, a paper suggesting a link between hurricanes and global warming.
Conrad Lautenbacher, the Administrator, did not want NOAA associated with the paper because it contained, in his words,
“no new science.”
Considering that the “science” surrounding the notion of global warming has been taken out behind the shed and spanked
for being very bad, one can only congratulate Conrad for not wanting NOAA to contribute to the stinking pile of
pseudo-science that keeps insisting the Earth is doomed, when, in fact, it has warmed barely one degree Fahrenheit between
1850 and 1950, and not at all since then.
The paper the NOAA Administrator resisted reportedly “conveyed a consensus opinion that global warming could lead to
more intense hurricanes.” Return now to Dr. Gray’s most recent downgrade of his predictions. Not global warming, but the
El Nino cycle. Not more and worse hurricanes, but less this year.
As they say, “Who you gonna believe? Global warming advocates or your lying eyes?” The endless blather about global
warming should be consigned to a thick file in the same cabinet as the Piltdown man and other famous hoaxes.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Science, Ethics, & Human Health
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Alan Caruba is a veteran business and science writer, a Public Relations Counselor, and Founder of the National Anxiety Center, a
clearinghouse for information about media-driven scare campaigns. Caruba writes a weekly commentary, "Warning Signs," posted
on the Internet website of the National Anxiety Center, which is located at
www.anxietycenter.com.
Caruba’s new book, Right Answers: Separating Fact from Fantasy, has been published by Merril Press.
© Alan Caruba 2006
Published with Permission of Alan Caruba
ACaruba@AOL.Com
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