THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 245, December 15, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
TWO MORE GLOBAL WARMING FALSE ALARMS
By Dennis T. Avery
THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE: POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM & CATACLYSMIC GLOBAL WARMING THEORY
VERSUS TRUE SCIENCE & SCHOLARLY RESEARCH -- RADICAL POLITICAL IDEOLOGY, ENVIRONMENTALIST PROPAGANDA,
PSEUDO-SCIENCE, & FRAUDULENT GLOBAL WARMING CLAIMS -- THE LACK OF A SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR THE
CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE THEORIES ADVANCED BY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS & THEIR POLITICAL ALLIES
IN THE NEWS MEDIA & THE "SCIENTIFIC" COMMUNITY -- DISCREDITING THE CHARLATANS' CLAIMS OF IMPENDING
CATACLYSMIC CLIMATE CHANGE
FULL STORY:
The global warming debate has developed a pattern: In part A, a scientist makes a scary claim and gets headlines for himself,
and his funding source, across the known world. In part B, a few months later, new evidence blows the scary claim away —
but with no press coverage of its demise.
Two more global warming scares have just been quietly blown away: the claim that global warming is causing more and
bigger hurricanes; and the claim that warming threatens to shut down the great Atlantic Ocean conveyor currents.
In the wake of Katrina, the message that global warming was producing more and bigger hurricanes led the news on TV and
the front pages for weeks. Now, the journal Science has published a reanalysis of the recent global hurricane data.
When the data were analyized on a uniform framework of space and time, the regions that get 85 percent of the howling
tropical storms show no upward trend in storm energy released. Some even show small declines. The Atlantic is the only
region showing an increase, with a doubling of storm energy between the 1980s and the last decade. However, the Atlantic
increase is globally canceled out by the North Pacific, where storm energy releases dropped 60 percent.
James Kossin, of the University of Wisconsin, led the reanalysis of the tropical storms. He says there’s no sign that tropical
storms are intensifying globally as the ocean waters warm. This is further endorsed by the old British Navy records from
the Caribbean, which indicate more than twice as many major land falling hurricanes per decade during the Little Ice Age
years from 1700 to 1850 as during the last 50 years of global warming.
The Abrupt Global Cooling Scare has also been discredited. In 2004, researchers had moored 19 new buoyant,
instrument-laden cables from West Africa to the Bahamas, to get better longterm data on the conveyor currents. In the
process, they also took a “snapshot” of north-south current flows and compared them with similar “snapshots” dating back
to 1957. Horrors, the snapshot showed a 30 percent drop in the northward flow of the Atlantic currents over 47 years!
That conclusion was headlined, along with the scary scenario of a Gulf Stream collapse like the one that threw the world back
into Ice Age temperatures 12,000 years ago. Now, however, several years of data from the instrument-laden floating cables
are telling us that the 30 percent drop in current flow is within the conveyor’s normal variability. Oops. As Science
said, “False alarm.”
Even the global climate models knew better. The big Goddard Space Institute climate model found that, without melt-water
from the huge mile-thick ice sheets that covered Canada and Northern Europe during the Ice Age, the Atlantic currents
showed a safe and sane linear response to further warming.
Keep this “scare-now and discredit-later” pattern of global warming press releases firmly in mind for the future. Weather is
highly variable, and the climate’s constant changes only reveal trends over long periods — but the global warming scare
tactics have wrung $18 billion out of recent U.S. federal budgets for climate change research.
Remember, too, that hundreds of research studies in recent decades have found a moderate, natural 1500-year climate cycle
that explains the earth’s pre-industrial 0.5 degree C warming from 1950 to 1940, and may also explain much of the very
modest 0.2 degree C net warming since 1940. If increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has produced nothing more
than 0.1 degree or so of warming in the last 65 years, we may need to rethink the whole global warming issue.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Science, Ethics, & Human Health
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior analyst for the United States
Department of State. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming:
Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit, Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Readers may write Avery at Post Office
Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421. Email: cgfi@rica.net
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