THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume IX, Issue # 4, January 4, 2007
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation' Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
HOW TO MAKE 2007 AHMADINEJAD'S
LAST YEAR IN POWER
By Dr. Michael Rubin
IRAN: STAGE-MANAGED DEMONSTRATIONS, POLITICAL PROPAGANDA, & THE WEAKNESSES OF THE IRANIAN
POLITICAL REGIME -- HOW THE U.S.A. & THE WEST CAN CAPITALIZE ON THE REGIME'S WEAKNESSES & THEREBY EFFECT
THE OVERTHROW & DESTRUCTION OF A DANGEROUS ENEMY OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION -- THE ROLE OF THE VOICE OF
AMERICA IN EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENTING SUCH A STRATEGY -- WHY AMERICA & THE WEST SHOULD NOT BE
DETERRED BY THEIR DESIRE FOR DIPLOMACY, DIALOGUE, & ENGAGEMENT
FULL STORY:
In Iran, demonstrations are an art form. First, the government buses in state workers. Next, officials distribute banners
with revolutionary slogans. Finally, state television reports a spontaneous rally in support of the Islamic Republic.
Stage-managed demonstrations, though, mask weakness. On December 11, 2006, a group of students interrupted a speech
by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with chants of "Death to the Dictator." On January 2, 2007, a demonstrator
in Ahvaz waved a placard condemning inflation, unemployment, and crime. Recent elections rebuked hardliners.
And, unfortunately, rather than find a way to capitalize on such weakness, up to now, a desire for diplomacy has blinded
the West. Between 2000 and 2005, European diplomats preaching engagement tripled trade with Iran. Tehran pumped 70%
of the resulting hard currency windfall into its nuclear and military programs. After U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice
offered dialogue with Iran, the regime announced it would redouble its nuclear efforts. Ahmadinejad, on January 4, said he
would "humiliate" the United States.
European diplomats declare their strategy to be working, but privately say a nuclear Iran is inevitable. Last month's partial
United Nations sanctions are only symbolic. Effectiveness requires comprehensive sanctions -- which diplomats could lift
in response to compliance.
But the UN is feckless. If U.S. President George W. Bush is sincere when he says the U.S.A. "will not tolerate" a nuclear
armed Iran, Washington may have to act alone. This need not mean military action, but rather willingness to exploit Iranian
weakness.
The Islamic Republic is under tremendous pressure. A recent Johns Hopkins University report predicts Iran's oil industry
could collapse within a decade, because of poor management and disintegrating infrastructure. Already, the Islamic
Republic must import 40% of its fuel needs. The Iranian economy is unable to provide jobs for 700,000 young people
entering the market annually. The World Bank estimates that Iran's GDP is 30% below its 1970s levels. Experts estimate 5
million Iranians are addicted to drugs. Prostitution has skyrocketed as poverty spreads.
The U.S. White House should exploit the growing cracks in Iranian society. Just as Ronald W. Reagan championed striking
shipyard workers in Poland in 1981, so too should President Bush support independent Iranian trade unions. Forcing the
regime to be accountable to its people both betters the lives of ordinary Iranians and undercuts Ahmadinejad's Dr.
Strangelove fantasies. In Iran, wildcat strikes helped launch the Islamic Revolution; so too might they end it.
It is wrongheaded to criticize Bush's Axis of Evil rhetoric. Not only does straight talk dampen European willingness to invest
in Iranian industry, but the willingness of Iranian constitutional democrats to speak out has grown in proportion to all the
White House talk about freedom. Peace activists should applaud such effective, nonmilitary action.
Finally, U.S. public diplomacy should prioritize information over pop music. The Iranian regime would be hard-pressed to
dismiss as propaganda stories of unrest and corruption originating in local Iranian papers and amplified by the Voice of
America into national news.
Military action against Iran would be a tragedy, but need only occur if U.S. policy remains a muddle. Here the White House
and new Congress are fortunate. If they play their cards well, this year could be Ahmadinejad's last.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East & the Problem of Iran
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Ph.D. in History (Yale University) and a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, Islamic culture and Islamist
ideology, is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public
Policy Research. Dr Rubin is author of Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, 2001) and is co-author, with Dr. Patrick Clawson, of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave
Macmillan, 2005). Dr. Rubin served as political advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003-2004); staff
advisor on Iran and Iraq in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense (2002-2004); visiting lecturer in the Departments of
History and International Relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2001-2002); visiting lecturer at the Universities of
Sulaymani, Salahuddin, and Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan (2000-2001); Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy (1999-2000); and visiting lecturer in the Department of History at Yale University (1999-2000). He has been a fellow at
the Council of Foreign Relations, the Leonard Davis Institute at Hebrew University, and the Carnegie Council on Ethics and
International Affairs.
The foregoing article by Dr. Rubin was originally published in the New York Daily News, January 3, 2007, and can be
found on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum.
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
January 3, 2007
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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